Desai et al., Health Secur, 2019
Keeling et al., Stat Meth Med Res, 2021
Cramer et al., medRxiv, 2021
Anticipate healthcare demand
Inform interventions
Support clinical trials
\[I(t) = R_t \sum_{\tau} g_{\tau} I_{t-\tau}\]
Abbott et al., Wellcome Open Res, 2020
Gostic et al., PLoS Comp Biol, 2021
Funk et al., medRxiv, 2021
Reich et al., Am J Public Health, 2022
We can compare forecasts using
proper scoring rules, e.g.
\[\mathrm{CRPS}(F, x) = \mathbb{E}|X-x| - \frac{1}{2}\mathbb{E}|X-X'|\]
Sherratt et al., in prep
We can compare forecasts using proper scoring rules, e.g. \[\mathrm{CRPS}(F, x) = \mathbb{E}|X-x| - \frac{1}{2}\mathbb{E}|X-X'|\] but these only tell us about relative quality of forecasts
Bosse et al., medRxiv, 2022
Sherratt et al., in prep
Meakin et al., BMC Medicine, 2021
Munday et al., in prep
Abbott et al., medRxiv, 2021
UKHSA, 2022
https://covid19nowcasthub.de
https://epiforecasts.io/epinowcast/
EpiForecasts group (https://epiforecasts.io)
Akira Endo, Hannah Choi, Hugo Gruson, James Munday, Kath Sherratt, Nikos Bosse, Sam Abbott, Sophie Meakin
Johannes Bracher, Nick Reich and other collaborators